Exchange rate reached historical maximum

The exchange rate reported yesterday by the National Bank of Romania (BNR) rose by 4.49 ban, at RON 4.3257/ EUR, reaching, thus, the highest level since the introduction of the European single currency, against the raising of the VAT from 19 to 24 per cent and amid uncertainties surrounding the IMF agreement.

The highest rate so far, of RON 4.3217/ EUR, was reported by BNR on January 22, 2009, Mediafax informs. In relation to the American currency, BNR reported a RON 3.4996/ USD rate, 0.85 ban above the earlier ratio. "It's all a muddle for now, we don't know when the money will be sent in, given that the IMF meeting on the agreement with Romania was adjourned indefinitely, and the futures market in the US indicates new drops at the Stock Markets," Georgiana Constantinescu, Credit Europe Bank analyst, stated.

On the interbanking market, exchange rates reached a maximum of RON 4.3300-4.3330/ EUR, the highest level since January 2009. The RON started depreciating from the beginning of the session, against the background of ebbing buying orders for euros made by merchant banks. ING Bank analyst Vlad Muscalu argues that BNR could be deliberately allowing the RON to fall, maintaining a gradual ascension of the exchange rate up to RON 4.35/ EUR, because foreign currency interventions often lead to a rise in interest rates.

Economic expert Bogdan Baltazar labelled as 'phantasmagoria, an emotional nonsense," the statement by National Bank of Romania (BNR) Director Eugen Radulescu saying the exchange rate might go up to 6 RON/euro, Realitatea.net reports. In Baltazar's view, the VAT increase measure and Eugen Radulescu's statement contributed to the depreciation of the RON. The RON has depreciated against the dollar as well, which means all the energy imports will cost us more," Bobdan Balthazar said, confident the "RON will not go further down."

Former finance minister Daniel Daianu says Romania does not need a political crisis as of now and, were the rate to get to 6 RON/euro would equal a collapse of home currency.

"We have not witnessed fallout, a significant depreciation, rooted in a great deal of uncertainty. The focus is not only on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) session being delayed, but also on the VAT increase not being enough. Aside from that, the issue could be raised about this government's stability and the fiscal cleanup. Fiscal cleanup is imperative. The RON collapse means for it to reach the levels referred to a few days ago by persons that should have abstained from speaking about it," Daianu explained.

Nine O'Clock