Romania still in recession: First-quarter GDP drops 0.3%

Romania's first-quarter Gross Domestic Product fell 2.6% from the same period of last year, and 0.3% from the fourth quarter 2009.In gross series, the economy contracted by 2.6% in the Jan-Mar period, from the year-ago period, while seasonally-adjusted the contraction was 2.5%.

However, the GDP contraction is narrowly below analysts' forecasts of 3.4% YoY decline and 0.5% q-o-q.Annually, the Gross Domestic Product dropped 6.9% in the fourth quarter 2009, after the 7.6% contraction in third quarter and 8% in the second quarter year-on-year. The National Institute of Statistics released Wednesday the GDP data for the first-quarter as a signal, and a more detailed report will be released at a later date.

Analysts: the economy is in recession. GDP dropped by 3.4% in Q1

The local economy is in recession according to the opinion expressed by the members of the Association of Financial Banking Analysts in Romania (AAFBR) in a survey.

The survey showed that GDP in Q1 2010 was reduced in real terms by 3.4% against the Q1of 2009 ( estimates vary between -2.2% and -4.0%) and by -0.5% ( data adjusted seasonly) against Q4 2009 ( estimates vary between -0.8% and 0.4%)

IMF revised its estimate for economic growth in the case of Romania from 1.3% to 0% or even negative of -0.5% but expected the resumption of economic growth up to the end of the year, the head of the IMF mission to Romania, Jeffrey Franks said.

AAFBR is a professional association set up in January 2008 and gathers over 50 analysts in the banking system, pension funds, investment administration companies, insurance companies and capital market.