Analysts: Inflation kept over 4.5% in January

The annual rate of inflation was in January between 4.5 and 5% mainly due to the increase of excises, the analysts estimate, being divided as regards the chances to reach the inflation target at the end of this year.

At the end of last year, the annual increase of consumption prices accelerated to 4.74% over the superior margin of the BNR target which missed for the third time the inflation target. For the end of 2010, BNR has an inflation target of 3.5% plus or minus a percentage point ( 2.5 - 4.5%). The last prognosis of inflation of the central bank, published at the beginning of February, indicated a level of inflation of 3.5% at the end of this year.

"We expect a significant acceleration of inflation in January, as excises increase, which will reflect in an increase of 5-6% of prices for fuel, tobacco and energy" stated that the head economist of UniCredit Tiriac Bank, Rozalia Pal. She expects a montly rate of inflation of 1.2% which increased the rate of annual inflation at 4.7% in January. However, Pal estimates the central bank to reach its inflation target this year, anticipating a level of 4.7% at the end of 2010, but the evolution of prices will be influenced by the political situation.

On the other hand, the head economist of ING Bank Romania Nicolaie Alexandru Chidesciuc considers that BNT will not reach its inflation target although the present objective is more realistic than the previous estimates.

« By comparison to the previous target, we consider the present target of 3.5% is a plausible one, but I think it will not be reached, due to factors which do not belong to BNR such as supply or evolution of the exchange rate" he said, quoted by NewsIn.
Chidesciuc estimates, for January, a monthly rate of inflation of 1.1% which corresponds to an annual rate of 4.6% and includes inflationist risks to become stronger during the second part of the year.
 
Ohter analysts consider that the inflation target for this year, but they are more careful about the results in January.

Lucian Anghel, head economist of BCR is confident about the target but it estimates an acceleration of the inflation in January up to a level almost close to 5%. The inflation target will be reached, without the increase of taxes, even if in January there will be a surprise less pleasant, due to the excises increase" he estimated.
Anghel thinks for Januayri that a monthly inflation of 1.1- 1.4% and an annual rate of 4.7 - 5%.

As regards alterations which the INS brings to the structure of the consumption basket, the analysts consider the tendency of the last year to drop the contribution of food, will kept and services will continue to increase.

Last year, in the consumption basket of the Romanians, on which INS calculates inflation, food represented 37.58%, non-food 44.05% and services 18.37%.