Economic growth slowed down in Q3 2009

Publish date: 16-11-2009
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According to the data published by Eurostat and the National Institute of Statistics (INS), the economy of the Euro area and that of the majority of the states from the European Union returned on a positive trend in the third quarter of this year, compared to the previous quarter.

According to statistics, Romania, with a GDP fall of 0.7 per cent, registered the fourth contraction of GDP in the European Union in Q 3, compared to Q 2. The biggest decline of GDP was registered in Estonia (-2.8 per cent), followed by Cyprus (-1.4 per cent) and Hungary (-1.8 per cent). Seven EU member states, among which also Romania, registered a regression of GDP in Q 3 compared to Q 2. In exchange, in ten member states, GDP registered a growth compared to the previous quarter. Another eight states (Bulgaria, Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Slovenia, Finland and Sweden) have not calculated Flash estimates, according to EU requests.

The decrease of the falling rate of Romania's GDP confirms most of the opinions of the analysts who estimate that in the next months, and especially in the first half of 2010, the Romanian economy will shift to "plus." This is due first of all to the fact that the main partners of Romania in the commercial exchanges, respectively Germany, Italy, France, give clear signals that they get out of the crisis and, thus, will stimulate our exports as main engine of resuming the economic growth.

EBRD chief economist showed recently that Romania has gone beyond the worst from the point of view of the economic contraction, being expected stabilization and even a return to growth next year, but the bad credits and unemployment will continue to grow. He estimated "wise" the decision of Romania to appeal, at the right time, to the IMF's money, considering that it had a stabilizing effect.

After a recession of 8 per cent this year, the economy of Romania is set to return on a positive territory in 2010, the predictions of the Romanian and international officials being between 0.5 and 1.5 per cent.

BNR's estimate appears to be the most optimistic, the vice governor of the central bank, Cristian Popa, announcing a figure of 1.5 per cent for the economic growth from 2010.

Both in EU case, and in the case of the Euro area, the economic growth registered in Q 3 of this year comes after three consecutive quarters of decline. But, in terms of annual rate, EU's GDP registered a contraction of 4.3 per cent in Q 3 (after a contraction of 4.0 per cent in Q 2), while the Euro area registered a contraction of 4.1 per cent (after a contraction of 4.8 per cent in Q 2).

In terms of annual rate, Q 3 of 2009 compared to Q 3 of 2008, Romania had the fourth contraction of GDP in the European Union with a regression of 7.1 per cent. On the first place we find Estonia (-15.3 per cent), followed by Lithuania (-14.3 per cent) and Hungary (-8.0 per cent). All the EU member states, for which there are available data, registered a GDP contraction at an annual rate.

In the case of Romania, the National Institute of Statistics announced on Friday that GDP (gross series) dropped 7.4 per cent in January-September 2009, compared to the same period 2008. The GDP was 0.7 per cent lower in Q 3, 2009, in real terms, compared to that from Q 2 of the same year.

Compared to Q 3, 2008, INS published a fall of 7.1 per cent of GDP (rough series) in Q 3 2009.

The GDP of Romania fell 8.8 per cent in Q 2, 2009, while in the first half of this year it dropped 7.6 per cent, according to the data published by INS.

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