CNP maintains economic downturn at 7.7 pc in 2009

The National Prognosis Commission (CNP) has maintained its estimate on an economic downturn of 7.7 per cent in Romania in 2009, anticipating an economic growth of 0.5 per cent in 2010, according to the final draft of the autumn prognosis recently published on the CNP website. For 2011 the CNP's final autumn prognosis estimates an economic growth of 2.4 per cent, while for 2012 it estimates a growth of 3.7 per cent. CNP also estimates an economic growth of 4.4 per cent in 2013 and one of 5.2 per cent in 2014. 

According to the final autumn prognosis ordered by the GDP's components, the industrial gross added value will register a drop of 7.3 per cent in 2009, a drop that is steeper than the 5.8 previously forecast and than the 1.3 per cent drop forecast for 2010. The industrial gross added value is set to grow in 2011. The agricultural gross added value will register a drop of 7 per cent in 2009 (7.8 per cent in the preliminary forecast) and a growth of 1.6 per cent in 2010. The constructions sector's gross added value will register a drop of 19.6 per cent, steeper than the 13.9 per cent previously forecast, and will grow by 3.6 per cent in 2010. The services sector's gross added value will register a drop of 4.8 per cent in 2009 (in contrast to 5.9 per cent previously forecast) and will grow by 0.6 per cent in 2010.

On the other hand, the construction works' volume as a gross series has grown in September by 13.2 per cent, the data published on Friday by the National Statistics Office (INS) shows. The same INS data shows that in the January - September period of 2009 the construction works' volume as a gross series dropped by 14 per cent compared to the level registered in the same period last year.

Likewise, the CNP has revised downwards its forecast on the economic contraction in Q3 of 2009, estimating an economic decline of 1.2 per cent compared to Q2 (adjusted from a preliminary autumn estimate of 1 per cent) and a drop of 9.4 per cent compared to the same period last year (0.2 per cent higher than the previous estimate).

Current account deficit stable at 4.6 pc of GDP in 2009

Romania's current account deficit this year will drop to 4.6 per cent of GDP compared to 12.3 per cent of GDP in 2008. In terms of volume the current account deficit will drop from EUR 16.897 bln in 2008 to EUR 5.37 bln in 2009. For 2010 the current account deficit is estimated to stand at 5.1 per cent of GDP, up from the previous estimate of 4.8 per cent of GDP or EUR 6.27 bln. In 2011 the current account deficit will reach a level of 5.3 per cent of GDP (in contrast to 4.7 per cent of GDP previously forecast) or EUR 7.04 bln, and in 2014 it will reach 4.9 per cent of GDP or EUR 8.76 bln. According to the CNP, the trade deficit will be adjusted to EUR 6.92 bln this year, with the Commission estimating a trade deficit of EUR 7.59 bln for 2010 and EUR 8.350 bln for 2011.

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