Estimation: Inflation was between 4.6% and 5% in September

Annual inflation was between 4.6 and 5% in September from 4.96% in August, under the conditions of excises increase for tobacco and the depreciation of the leu by comparison to the previous month, counterbalanced effects by the favourable evolution of food prices, the analysts interviewed by NewsIn say.

« We think consumption prices increased by 0.2% in September by comparison to August, the annual rate of inflation being 4.7%. The main factors were the increase of excises in tobacco and exchange rate. A favourable contribution we will see on the part of food prices" the head -economist of Raifeissen Ionut Dumitru said.

At the same time, the head economist of BCR Lucian Anghel said that the inflation rate will be targeted by the central bank as the contraction of the aggregated demand took place. Anghel estimates a monthly rate of inflation between 0.1 and 0.3% which places annual inflation in September at 4.6 - 4.8%.

« The desinflation trend will continue. Without VAT increase in 2010, the inflation will reach the minimum level of the latest 20 years" Anghel added.

On the other hand, the fact that 2009 had administered prices non-modified suggests the fact that inflation is determined by the rigidity of the supply of goods and services.
The senior economic of ING Bank Romania Nicolae Alexandru Chidesciuc estimates an increase of consumption prices by 0.2% in September against August, the annual inflation being 4.8%.

« Taking into consideration the evolution of the inflation in the region, there is the possibility that inflation be placed under 4.8% in September" Chidesciuc said.
However, he underlined the fact that in 2010 there will be new inflationist pressures out the administered prices indexation, after the election period.

"Even if we don't increase VAT in 2010 administered prices will be indexed, after they were kept under control this year, before the elections. These increases will come after a difficult period, of unemployment and drop in salaries" the senior economist of ING Bank Romania said.

On the other hand, the head economist of UniCredit Tiriac Bank, Rozalia Pal considered that monthly inflation was 0.4% in September against August,the annual rate being 5% similar level to that of the previous month.

"First of all the increase of excises to tobacco, partially compensated by the drop in fuel prices. In food we will have a similar evolution to that in August" Pal said.
In September, the exchange rate went up to 4.2389 lei/euro by 0.5% over the level in the previous month, of 4.2185 lei/euro.

The BNR governor Mugur Isarescu stated that inflation was placed in September " significantly under 5%".

According to the preliminary data we have in connection to the September inflation, the prices indicator was under the level of last year. As a consequence the inflation rate in September will be under 5%. We expect this to happen in October as well, with a drop under the one announced and to get closer to the target towards the end of the year. Inflation will be 4% towards the end of the year" Isarescu said.

The interval targeted by BNR for inflation at the end of 2009 is 3.5% plus or minus one percentage point, and the prognosis of the latest report on inflation is of 4.3% for December this year.

The annual rate dropped in August at 4.9% and against July consumption prices dropped by 0.19% as food got cheaper and non-food prices went up. Such a low level of the annual rate of inflation was never reached since August 2007 when the annual indicator was 4.96%.

The National Institute for Statistics (INS) published on Monday 12th October the data regarding September inflation.