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Fitch: Bulgaria, Romania to Join Eurozone in 2015Updated: 22-04-2009 |
Fitch rating agency has forecast that Bulgaria and Romania will join the euro area in 2015, specifying that the timetable is likely to be changed.
"Despite EU concerns about the problems faced by some countries in Eastern Europe, its willingness to provide substantial financial assistance and the possible political attractiveness of a 'quick fix', Fitch does not expect a relaxation of EU policy on joining the euro area", reads the press release remitted by Fitch.
Fitch envisages that Estonia, Lithuania, and Poland will enter the Eurozone in 2013, and the Czech Republic and Hungary in 2014.
According to Fitch analysts, EU authorities are disinclined to a "premature" euro adoption, for the concern that "countries might subsequently find itself unwilling or unable to bear the economic and political cost of adjustment within the euro area, and even possibly seek to leave it, triggering contagion to other countries within the single currency".
Fitch notes that the EU also opposes unilateral euroisation, as in Montenegro and Kosovo.
Fitch analysts believe that joining the euro area would be net positive for Eastern European countries, as it would it would render the risk of balance of payment and currency crises negligible.
The adoption of the single European currency would lift foreign currency issuer default ratings by 1-2 notches.
"If there were an unexpected relaxation of EU policy that opened the way for early euro adoption, then Fitch would expect to respond by taking some positive rating actions on the countries concerned," said Edward Parker, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereigns at Fitch.
Fitch reminds that the countries' sovereign ratings don't take into account a fast-track euro adoption, not until the countries have met the Maastricht convergence criteria.
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