BCR: Romania's economy will continue to grow in 2009, but only by 1%Publish date: 05-02-2009
The effects of international crisis on Romania will increase in 2009, and the pace of economic growth will temperate very much, as compared to that of 2008, around the level of 1%, correlated with an economic decrease slightly over 1% in the euro zone, the chief economist of BCR said Tuesday.
"After a 8.6% economic growth pace in the first 9 months of the previous year, the probability that 2008 should end with an increase in real terms of gross domestic product below 8% is higher and higher," said the chief economist of the Romanian Commercial Bank (BCR), Lucian Anghel, upon the presentation of the Country report for Romania made by BCR Cercetare.
Under these circumstances, BCR's recently revised scenario indicates "a slow-down of the Romanian economy around the level of 1% in 2009, correlated with an economic decline slightly above 1% in the euro area."
The difference of economic growth between Romania and the euro zone could, therefore, be of 2.5-3 percentage points this year, in a scenario where the impact of agriculture is excluded. Trade, services and construction could be the main factors to generate economic growth in 2009, Anghel also said.
"It is vital fort the infrastructure works, which hold about 35% of the construction sector, to continue to be supported by the government through a detailed plan with clearly assumed responsibilities, figures and deadlines within a multi-annual budget programming. This is especially necessary this year as the expectations for a continued economic growth are particularly related to this area", said the chief economist of BCR.
The probability to improve the situation in a short time is extremely low, but, however, Romania remains a worthy of consideration alternative for foreign investors and, most importantly, a country that can rely in good measure on important natural resources in the process of development, Romania's energy dependence rate being about 29%, as compared to the EU27 average, which is 54%, the BCR release reads.
"A new legal framework in terms of investment was adopted in 2008, aiming at a better territorial distribution of investments, including the foreign ones, at reducing disparities and creating a more uniform sustainable economic growth environment", Anghel also said.
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