Romanian Leu Could Lose Another 5% Vs Euro, After Dropping 11% In 2008 - Erste

Publish date: 09-01-2009
  • Bookmark & Share

The Romanian leu could lose another 5% versus the euro, given the “huge” current account deficit, after dropping by 11% against the European currency since the beginning of 2008, Erste Group researchers said in a report.

The Romanian leu depreciated strongly on Thursday, in a volatile trading session, and touched its all-time low at RON4.18 versus the euro at the end of the session.
 
“Currencies showed varying performances during recent weeks, but volatility evened out. The most promising currency for the first quarter seems to be the Polish zloty (…) On the other side of the spectrum sits the Romanian leu, which could lose another 5% versus the euro given the huge current account deficit,” Erste Group’s report said.
 
Erste Group sees Romania’s foreign account deficit at 13.6% of the gross domestic product, or GDP, in 2008. Erste forecasts the foreign account gap to drop to 12% of the GDP in 2009 and to 9.8% of the GDP in 2010.
 
Erste analysts said the international investors’ skeptical approach toward the Central and Eastern Europe region would probably improve “only slowly” and the global environment will remain uncertain.
 
“Nonetheless, while the countries have to be looked at on an individual basis, we firmly believe in a macro economic outperformance of the region,” the report said.
 
However, one common factor is the low level of indebtedness, according to Erste. Household debt in the region varies between 20-40% of GDP, while in Euroland the respective figure is close to 60% and in the US marginally under 100%.

Mediafax

Avem nevoie de acceptul tău!
Partenerii noștri folosesc cookie-uri pentru personalizarea și măsurarea anunțurilor. Prin acceptarea cookie-urilor, anunțurile afișate vor fi mai relevante pentru tine. Îți mulțumim pentru accept și te informăm că îți poți schimba oricând opțiunea în Politica de Cookie.