The investment currency in 2009Publish date: 30-12-2008
The main question is: what currency should we invest in next year, considering that the leu is registering a downward trend against all major currencies? What foreign currency will register the highest growth against the leu, to provide maximum profit? According to analysts on international markets, the main targets should be currencies which depreciated sharply in 2008.
The surprise could come from the British pound, said dealers on financial markets, who indicated in a Bloomberg survey that the pound will gain 14 percent against the euro in the coming year, after losing 24 percent in 2008. Moreover, Deutsche Bank forecasts that the pound will appreciate by some 20 percent in 2009.
However other analysts say that investments in pounds will not be so profitable. Vlad Muscalu, Senior Economist at ING Bank Romania said that investments in Swiss francs could bring a higher yield.
According to dealers, the most important currencies to appreciate will be the pound, the U.S. dollar, and the Swiss franc. The euro will also gain against the leu. Analysts say that the euro will surpass the RON 4/€1 threshold in 2009. According to economists interviewed by Business Standard, the average euro-leu exchange rate could reach 4.5. This is the most pessimistic forecast and belongs to Matei Paun, Managing Partner at the BAC investment consultancy company.
A study conducted by ING, which analyzes the evolutions of currencies in 2009 on international markets, indicates that the dollar will appreciate against the euro in the coming year.
Although lenders are encouraging individuals to invest in lei, the national currency will continue to depreciate, according to analysts. Unfortunately, such depreciation will hit most emerging currencies in Central and Eastern Europe, said economists.
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