BCR ups economic growth estimate to 8.3% for 2008, after H1 skyrocketing advancePublish date: 05-09-2008
Analysts with Romania's largest bank by assets, Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR), revised upwards their prognosis for economic growth this year to 8.3 percent, after data showed a record advance of 8.8 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first semester.
BCR had previously estimated the economic growth at 7 percent. The lender maintains its prognosis of a 6 percent advance of the GDP for next year.
BCR analysts say prospects for the third quarter of 2008 are very good, following the positive results in agriculture - a 150 percent year-on-year hike in the wheat production. The fourth quarter may be affected by risks in constructions and services due to the restrictive monetary policy rate and the financial turbulence on the international markets.
The slowdown in the economic growth rate towards the estimated level of 6 percent in 2009 is not enough to reduce the risk of an overheated economy. The solution would be a shift from consumption towards a positive net export.
Romania needs major investments in the processing industry and agriculture, to increase its aggregate supply and improve the structure of the economic growth, the bank's macroeconomic report shows.
Investments in agriculture grew to 4.8 percent of the total investments in the first semester of 2008 from 1.6 percent in the similar period last year. The industry also saw an increase, from a 35.4 percent weight in the first half of 2007, to 36.3 percent of the total investments in the similar period this year.
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