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Chief economist says BNR considered the record GDP advance when it revised the inflation estimateUpdated: 01-09-2008 |
Romania's economic growth that exceeded estimates in the first semester puts pressure on the inflation, but was taken into account when the central bank (BNR) revised upwards its inflation prognosis for the end of the year, BNR chief economist Valentin Lazea announced.
BNR increased the inflation estimate with 0.6 percent to 6.6 percent for the end of 2008, when it presented its most recent quarterly report on inflation on August 4.
The positive effect of the agriculture hike, which led to a decrease in food prices, will not counter the pressure on inflation coming from an accelerated consumption, said Lazea.
The gross domestic product (GDP) stood at 195.8 billion lei (53.3 billion euros) in the first semester, an 8.8 percent year-on-year increase. The annual economic growth rate for the second quarter registered a record 9.3 percent, compared to the estimated value of 8 - 8.5 percent.
Romania's economy last peaked two years ago, when it climbed 7.4 percent in the first semester of 2006, and respectively 7.9 percent in the second quarter.
But the current growth rate exceeds the country's potential and Romania could fail to repeat this performance in the coming years, analysts estimate. Moreover, the economic advance could drop to below 4 percent in 2009.
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