Erste Bank report: Romania is 1-2 quarters behind the countries in the region and will stop in 2010

Romania, Hungary, Croatia and Serbia are approximately 1-2 quarters behind the states in the region and will stagnate in 2010. Poland avoided recession, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Ukraine reached the minimum in Q1 2009, all having to grow by 2.-3 % in 2010, against the present year, the Erste Bank report shows.

According to the document, the adjustment of imbalances of current account, which affected the domestic demand, comes close to the end. Investments will be stable at lower levels and the economic growth of Romania won't be over 1%, the report shows.

A bigger contraction is estimated in the case of certain countries ( Ukraine, Romania, Hungary) more reduced in the case of others ( the Czech Republic) while only one ( Poland) will completely avoid recession. The contraction of this year is determined by a series of factors: the considerable adjustment of the current account deficit ( Romania, Serbia, Ukraine), the drop in exports ( the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary) and the fiscal consolidation ( this year it is present only in Hungary). We remind that the budget on 2010 was built taking into consideration an economic growth by 0.5% at an exchange rate of 4.2 and an inflation of 3.7%.