Romania's economic growth braked close to zero in Q4 last year, analysts estimate

Romania's economic growth pushed the brake pedal hard in the fourth quarter last year close to the door of recession, analysts gauge, considering the statistics published in the past months of last year which pointed to a downturn in most fields.

The chief economist of the largest bank by assets in Romania, Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR), Lucian Anghel, forecasts the gross domestic product advanced 0.5 percent the most in the last quarter of 2008 which corresponds to a 6.1-6.2 percent growth for the whole year.

In the first nine months last year, Romania's economy accelerated to the highest level in the European Union, by 8.9 percent. Yet, the last quarter advance has the most significant influence on the whole year.

The industry lost 10 percent, while the drops in commerce and services are still unknown, Anghel told NewsIn. A positive or negative economic advance will stem from the evolution of wholesales, he added.

Some analysts warn that only two fields - agriculture and constructions - kept a healthy growing pace in the last three months of 2008 and were unable to offset the fall of other sectors.

For the whole year, the senior economist with ING Bank Romania, Nicolae Alexandru Chidesciuc, estimates a 7.3 percent economic growth.

"Data could be more negative than what we have initially expected," he said, stressing that industry, retail and services have been declining ever since the economic downturn settled in Romania in the fall of last year.

NewsIn